"How far ahead is China of the United States in the hypersonic missile race?"

How far ahead is China of the United States in the hypersonic missile race?

**Warship-Destroying YJ-17 Hypersonic Missile**

This month, China organized a massive military parade in the Pacific region to mark the end of World War II. There, it showcased hypersonic missiles capable of destroying warships. The display also carried an indirect warning: in any future conflict, there is a risk that the United States’ \$130 billion aircraft carriers could be sent to the ocean floor.

Not only China, but Russia is also investing in such weapons as a rival to the United States. Russia too has made progress in developing hypersonic missiles. Because of their extreme speed and maneuverability, these missiles are considered ideal for destroying high-value targets.

Compared to China, however, the United States is still lagging in hypersonic weapons development, though experts say the country is making progress. Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated: *“While we were busy with counterterrorism operations, China was working seriously on this kind of technology. They are ahead, that’s true. But we are also advancing quickly.”

Hypersonic weapons can travel at more than five times the speed of sound. This feature gives them unique military advantages. However, the immense heat they generate often creates design challenges.

Globally, research is now focused on two main types of hypersonic weapons. One is the rocket-powered cruise missile, and the other is the hypersonic glide vehicle. These detach from a rocket launched into the atmosphere and then travel at hypersonic speeds.

Both types of missiles can change speed and trajectory, making them difficult to intercept with defense systems. Their ideal targets are highly protected locations or places where precise timing of strikes is critical—for example, aircraft carriers or high-ranking military officers.

It is believed that China and Russia are making advances in hypersonic weapons technology. However, due to occasional exaggerated claims, it is often difficult to assess their true capabilities.

At the September 3rd military parade, China showcased several types of hypersonic weapons, including the YJ-17, YJ-19, and YJ-20 missiles. Beijing could potentially use these weapons to sink U.S. warships in the event of conflict.

Not all of these missile designs have yet completed the testing phase. Information revealed at different times suggests that since 2020, China has begun supplying its military with the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle.

Another sign of China’s strong focus on hypersonic weapons is its extensive investment in their development and testing. At a 2018 conference, then–senior U.S. defense official Michael Griffin stated that over the past decade, China had conducted 20 times more hypersonic tests than the United States.

**Kinzhal Hypersonic Cruise Missile Mounted on Russia’s MiG-31 Fighter Jet**

At the center of Russia’s hypersonic weapons program are the *Avangard* (a glide vehicle) and the *Zircon* (a cruise missile). In addition, Russia has deployed a weapon known as the *Kinzhal*. This system is based on older, less maneuverable ballistic missile technology, but Moscow has presented it as a hypersonic weapon. Russia has claimed that the development process for these three weapons is complete and that production for the military is underway.

However, Russia’s exaggerated claims do not always align with reality. In 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the Kinzhal missile to be “invincible.” Yet Ukraine has claimed that between 2022 and April of this year, it successfully intercepted 40 Kinzhal missiles. Reports also indicate that Ukraine has downed Zircon missiles.

Unlike the United States, Russia has at least managed to deploy some hypersonic weapons. By contrast, the U.S. Army’s hypersonic deployment program has faced repeated delays. However, the Army has stated it is on track to deploy the *Dark Eagle* hypersonic weapon by the end of this year.

Two major hypersonic programs in the U.S. Air Force have also been delayed. These are the *Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW)*, a glide vehicle, and the *Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM)*, a cruise missile.

According to U.S. budget documents, both programs have encountered structural issues in missile development. Nevertheless, the Air Force plans to begin ARRW production in 2026, while a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report states that HACM production is planned for 2027.

Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, argued that although U.S. progress on hypersonic weapons may appear slow, its actual position is not as weak as it seems.

Harrison explained further: First, the United States does not face the same need as China to target highly valuable assets with hypersonic weapons. For instance, China’s aircraft carrier fleet numbers only three ships, while the U.S. Navy possesses eleven. Moreover, the United States has other means of penetrating enemy air defenses, such as its fleet of stealth aircraft—capabilities that surpass those of China.

Harrison also noted that Washington considers hypersonic weapons as a specialized capability rather than a core one.

On paper, at least, the Trump administration appeared keen to close the technological gap with Russia and China. At a February confirmation hearing, U.S. Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg remarked that the United States had historically underinvested in hypersonic weapons, calling such spending “essential” for national security.

Still, many question how quickly Washington can close this gap. CSIS expert Tom Karako said he has yet to see any significant changes in budget allocations.

Karako added that although recent appropriations bills and the latest defense budget show some modest positive signals, no major breakthroughs have occurred yet.